God is Bigger: The Prequel

In February 2016 I wrote this talk on the "Markov Chain Model for Life," as I like to call it. The topics touched upon are similar to those in my prior post, and emphasize my belief that God's plan for us does not include being paralyzingly stressed about identifying God's plan for us. I still find myself wanting to reread and share this talk often, so I wanted to make it available here. I hope that as we all share pieces of our experiences with one another, we can continue to improve our understanding of the gospel and our Heavenly Parents' plan for us.

The Markov Chain Model for Life

During my sophomore year of high school, my chemistry teacher liked to say: “All models are wrong. Some are helpful.”

At the time, I don’t think I could fully grasp the meaning of his statement because I really wanted to believe in the Bohr model of the atom. The Bohr model claims that a nucleus of protons and neutrons is surrounded by electrons in orbit, similar to the way the planets orbit the sun. The different paths of orbit correspond to different energy levels, and depending on how many electrons exist in the outermost energy level, the anthropomorphized atom “wants” to bond with an atom or set of atoms with the right configuration of electrons to perfectly complement its own set.

For a first year chemistry student, this sounded pretty good. As I went on to take more chemistry classes, however, I discovered just enough to understand just how much I don’t know. The electrons actually surround the nucleus in a way that we cannot clearly define, except with complex equations that predict the distribution of where the electrons might be, and those distributions can morph and change as the atom bonds with other atoms.

So, where did that leave me? In the end, I realized that the Bohr model is wrong, and that I have no idea how atoms really work. However, learning the Bohr model taught me to predict how simple chemical reactions occur, which gave me a foundation to build upon as I learned more nuanced ideas about chemistry.

In other words: the Bohr model is wrong, but it is also helpful.

So let’s talk about another model that we often use: the idea of the straight and narrow path.

In Matthew, we read “Because strait is the gate, and narrow is the way, which leadeth unto life, and few there be that find it.” Nephi too speaks of the narrow way, and adds to our model a “Rod of Iron,” interpreted as the word of God, to which we might cling as we strive to walk down this impossibly narrow path.

The straight and narrow path model is a helpful one. It teaches us that the goal to become like Christ does not give us a particularly large target—that perfection is a very difficult thing to achieve. It warns against the temptations that we will face, and offers us the word of God as a guidepost and defense against those temptations. Using this model, we can envision ourselves progressing through life, fighting the good fight, and knowing with a confidence that if we hold to the iron rod, we will find ourselves at the Tree of Life in the end.

Just as the Bohr model gave me a way to understand simple reactions, the straight and narrow path model prepared me as a youth to face the decisions I needed to make at that time. I learned to hold to the rod by reading my scriptures and praying daily, attending church weekly, and even going to the temple when I became old enough. I learned to recognize temptation and strive to avoid it. The model helped me.

Now I don’t really dare call the straight and narrow path model “wrong” from the pulpit, but I will say that I believe that the model describes life imperfectly.

To explain by way of an example, when I was in high school and choosing where to come to school, I considered BYU, WashU, and Stanford. I was particularly stressed about making the right decision. Teachers, family, and friends tried to explain to me that I would be okay wherever I went—that things would work out anywhere—but I struggled to believe them. In some ways, the “straight and narrow path” model had taught me to believe that there was one “right” thing that God wanted for me, and I had to figure it out or else be doomed to be evermore on the wrong path.

I am sure you can all think of similar times in your life, as you have sought after the “right” education, job, home, friends, spouse, etc. When we try to squeeze these life decisions into one straight and narrow path, the pressure to do the right thing can be overwhelming. So where do these decisions fit? What model can we use for them?

With some inspiration taken from a class I am taking about Markov Chains right now, I have been envisioning a different model for our lives. In this model, we have infinite opportunities in front of us which we will call “states”, some of which are connected and some of which are not. At each place in our lives, we can only move to states that are connected to our current state, and we can never move backwards.

Going back to my college-decision analogy, I came to a point where I had three clear options for schools in front of me. I considered each one, and then chose Stanford, at which point I transitioned to the Stanford “state” in my chain, and the options to go to the WashU or BYU fell away. I can no longer get to those states, even though they were once an option for me. I can also not get to the states that those schools would have connected me to: instead, I can only move forward to opportunities to which my current state leads.

I hope that you can envision a similar path in your life—that you can remember choices you have made that opened up a particular path for you, but that inevitably closed other doors as well. While we could likely come up with dozens of reasons that this model is wrong, I would like to focus on a few ways that it can be helpful.


The first way that this model can help us is for those days when we are looking backwards—reconsidering past decisions, or wondering if we chose the wrong path.

When Teryl and Fiona Givens visited a few weeks ago, they shared a story that really impacted the way I think about looking backwards. When Bruce R. McConkie was an apostle, he attended a stake conference at which he called a new Stake President. After church that day, his son asked, “Was he God’s choice for the calling?” to which elder McConkie replied, “Well, he is now.”

Perhaps you could interpret this story as saying that Elder McConkie didn’t care about the accuracy of his decision, but I do not believe that was it. I believe that was his way of saying, “I did the best I can, and though I know I am imperfect, I have faith that God will make it work anyway.” When we make a decision that we later regret, we can have this same faith that God will consecrate the path we have chosen for our good. We will not always choose “plan A” on our own, but if we have faith in Him, He can make the path we have chosen the one that will work most to our benefit. Jeffrey R. Holland explained:

 “There is something in us, at least in too many of us, that particularly fails to forgive and forget earlier mistakes in life—either mistakes we ourselves have made or the mistakes of others. That is not good. It is not Christian. It stands in terrible opposition to the grandeur and majesty of the Atonement of Christ. To be tied to earlier mistakes—our own or other people’s—is the worst kind of wallowing in the past from which we are called to cease and desist.”

The Atonement has a power that can bless each path we choose, and cause it to fill with opportunities in front of us as the Lord strives to reveal ways for us to get back to him. This promise can be found in 1 Nephi 3:7, where Nephi explains that the Lord giveth no commandments unto the children of men, save he shall prepare a way for them that they may accomplish the thing which he commandeth them.

When we do something wrong, and find ourselves looking longingly at states that we have already passed through, we have to understand that the way the Lord is preparing for us is ahead of us. Look forward. The Lord will prepare a way from where you are right now, so long as you are willing to repent, or to literally turn towards Him again.


With that, we arrive at the second way this model can be helpful. It can help us to look forwards and embrace the opportunities ahead with an abiding hope in Christ.

The way I remember it, choosing which college to attend was the first major life decision I ever had to make, which was hard but I had always known it was coming. Somehow, however, I thought that the rest of the “decade of decision” would flow smoothly from there. I thought my major would reveal itself to me, and from there my first job.

My path actually went differently. I got to school thinking I would do chemical or bioengineering, and at first, swapped between the two about each quarter. As I approached sophomore year, I became frantic. I felt like options were falling away around me as I was running out of time for many different majors, so I jumped from class to class in an attempt to keep my options open just a little longer. I was fearful, and grasping at straws in an attempt to find stable ground. The future was not full of the hope, but instead frightening, high-pressure, and uncertain.

James E Faust spoke of a similar situation: “Some choices present good opportunities no matter which road we take—for example, when deciding which career path to follow or which school to attend. I know one bright and able young man who wanted to become a doctor, but the opportunity did not open up for him; so he chose to follow the law. He has become a very successful lawyer, but I am satisfied he would have been equally successful as a doctor.”

Just like this man, the Lord has blessed each of us with many talents, such that we can be successful on more paths than we can even imagine. However, our eternal potential is about getting back to our Heavenly Parents on one of those paths, not about taking every single path. We do not have to fear when paths close off, because we can have faith that there are always better paths ahead.

President Dieter F Uchtdorf speaks of the hope that we must have as we look forward: “Yes, we will make mistakes. Yes, we will falter. But as we seek to increase our love for God and strive to love our neighbor, the light of the gospel will surround and uplift us. The darkness will surely fade, because it cannot exist in the presence of light. As we draw near to God, He will draw near to us. And day by day, the hope of God’s light will grow within us, “brighter and brighter until the perfect day.”
We do not have to fear the “what ifs” of the paths we have not chosen. Instead, we can embrace the opportunities we have chosen, and those that lie ahead. We can have hope that as we acknowledge God in all our ways, He shall direct our paths.


As we replace looking backwards with regret with a determination to be better and fear of moving forwards with a hope in Christ, it will enable us to spend more time looking outwards.

Looking outwards grants us opportunity to seek help when we need it, enables us to help others when they are in need, and can open our hearts to the diversity of experience of those around us. On this 3rd point, LDS Author and founder of the Mormon Women Project NM explained:

“Over the hundreds of hours I have spent interviewing and listening to and crying with those who have shared their stories with me, I have come to a conclusion which is my message to you today: We can no longer assume that – just because we’re in the same Relief Society or Elders Quorum class as another or even look like the person sitting next to us – we automatically share viewpoints with that person or make the same life choices they do. In fact, we have come to a point in the diversity and growth of the Church that we must assume instead, even within our own wards and classes, that members’ choices, lifepaths, and viewpoints will represent a wider spectrum of seen and unseen variations than we have ever experienced as a community before.”

To me, looking outward means recognizing that even in challenging parts of your own path, there are people surrounding you on unique paths with challenges you cannot know of. We increasingly have the opportunity to hear stories from and be uplifted by a diverse group of people, but only if we are willing to search outside ourselves and look outwards.


To close, I express my hope that my words have opened you up to the vast, incredible plan that our Heavenly Parents have prepared for each of us. You needn’t be converted to the Markov-Chain inspired model, but I hope you will remember that God is not small, and our potentials are not narrow. I have hope that through the Atonement of Christ, we will always have the opportunity to turn our paths back to face our Heavenly Home -- and that elder Lawrence was right in saying that “our direction is ever more important than our speed.”

I leave this with you in the name of Jesus Christ, Amen.